Thursday, January 20, 2011

State of the Union Predictions


     President Barack Obama’s second State of the Union speech will be delivered to a joint, but newly divided session of Congress. The November elections resulted in a new dynamic for Congress with Democrats retaining control of the Senate and Republicans in power in the House. The President’s speech will likely address this changing of the guard since, having lost the advantage of having his party in control of both House and Senate, he must now find a way to work with Republicans as well as Democrats to pass his agenda. Obama is said to have much in common with his role model, Abraham Lincoln. Lincoln’s ability to calm people with just his demeanor and his bent toward diplomatic discussion are traits the current President shares with his predecessor. Obama’s reputation as “no drama, Obama” will come in handy as he begins the task of working with the newly divided Congress. In the wake of the tragedy in Tucson, an event he will probably reference in his speech, Obama has the perfect opening to entreat Congress to reach across the aisle, to work together, to change the nasty tone of partisan politics and simply get the job done for the American people. 
     Obama’s first State of the Union speech focused much attention on the effects of the recession. “But the devastation remains. One in ten Americans still cannot find work. Many businesses have shuttered. Home values have declined,” Obama said.  These remarks from last year’s speech could have been taken from the headlines of today’s newspapers. With nearly double-digit unemployment still a major issue across the country and economic recovery still uncertain, it stands to reason that this year’s speech must again focus on job creation and proposals aimed at stimulating the American economy. Some thirty-plus years, different party affiliations and backgrounds divide Barack Obama and Ronald Reagan, yet these two leaders faced similar issues. Reagan and Obama inherited the worst economic situations since the Great Depression. In the State of the Union speech delivered by President Ronald Reagan in 1982, Reagan also said he was battling unemployment and economic uncertainty.  “Yes we are in a time of recession.  And it’s true, there is no quick fix to instantly end the tragic pain of unemployment,” Reagan said. Incidentally, Reagan worked successfully with a divided Congress for six years. Obama is just beginning to work in similar circumstances. Reagan led us out of a time of economic uncertainty. The hope is that Obama will also be a positive agent of change.
    Obama will detail the successes of his agenda over the last year and tie that information to his current agenda. For instance, when touting his success in repealing “don’t ask, don’t tell.” Obama will talk about taking pride in our military, the progress made and yet to come in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Obama will definitely talk about the passage of health care reform and promise to fight to keep it from being repealed. 
     The State of the Union speech must include foreign policy. Obama will talk about trade, China’s rise to power and the need for good relations with other nations. Like John F. Kennedy, Obama will likely speak of the need to restore America ‘s status, moral leadership and good standing among the nations of the world. These men shared a similar stance on foreign policy and took a similar route to the White House. Both were young, handsome, charismatic speakers who rose to national prominence after making a speech at the Democratic convention.  Both were elected despite their heritage. When Kennedy announced his candidacy, many believed the country was not yet ready for a Catholic President. Obama overcame his Muslim heritage in a post 9/11 world and the color of his skin.  Each attracted a grass roots movement with a message of hope and change.  An assassin’s bullet killed the hope engendered by Kennedy’s election. It would be a tragedy if this recession and a divided congress kill the hope so many Americans felt on the day Barack Obama took the oath of office.

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